The Kilauea volcano in Hawaii is set to erupt again, with the USGS predicting an eruption between May 22-25. This prediction comes after a recent 9-hour lava fountaining episode that ended on May 15. The USGS has a track record of accurate timing forecasts for Kilauea eruptions this year. As scientists analyze the recent eruption, they note that lava flowed from the south vent 75 times in 12 hours, with the north vent producing a 650-foot lava fountain. The south vent overflowed for a few hours, eventually diminishing to spattering and then only flames. An estimated 6.2 million cubic yards of lava covered nearly half of the Halema'uma'u crater floor.
The eruption's plume rose to 20,000 feet above sea level, and weak winds allowed it to rise vertically, causing tephra to fall around the Kilauea caldera. Most tephra fell within the park, but some sparse reticulite up to 3 inches in size was found at overlooks. Fine ash and Pele's hair also fell in communities to the northeast. The USGS kept the Kilauea alert level at ADVISORY/YELLOW throughout the episode, as the volcanic activity decreased significantly but remained under close monitoring.
Currently, both eruptive vents glow, and incandescence is visible on the crater floor as the lava flows cool and solidify. The USGS reports that summit reinflation of magma is underway, increasing their confidence in the forecast for Episode 48 to occur between May 22 and May 25. This anticipation builds excitement in Hawaii, as Kilauea has been erupting since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents in Halema'uma'u.
The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) manages Aviation Codes and Volcanic Activity Alert Levels. These codes range from green (normal activity) to red (eruption underway with significant ash emission). The Kilauea Alert Level is currently ADVISORY, and the Aviation Color Code is YELLOW. While the next eruption is expected to be contained to the summit caldera, volcanic debris could travel far from the site, posing hazards like Pele's hair and other glassy fragments.
The USGS warns residents and visitors to minimize exposure to these fragments, which can cause skin and eye irritation and contaminate water supplies. The National Weather Service may issue ash fall advisories if an eruption occurs, urging people to exercise caution and stay informed about volcanic activity and weather conditions. With the potential for road and park closures, it's crucial to follow guidance from the National Park Service and the County of Hawaii.
